Updated long-term trend of monthly wind statistics (maximum, average and minimum) for the end of May 2022

Given that we hit a new all-time high in wind generation earlier this week (Monday May 31, 2022), I thought it was time to update this query prepared in advance in NEM review v7 to show how the stats title has changed:

(data shown indicates that this trend is for the last full month – therefore no data is visible for June until we are in July 2022).

(A) Main statistics at the end of May 2022

There are a number of things clearly visible in the table above, including the following:

(A1) Monthly Maximums

I’ve summarized the gradual evolution of “highest ever” instantaneous production records in the chart below:

Month Impact of the new “absolute maximum”

May 2022

As shown here on Tuesday, May 31, 2022, this day saw of them discrete instances of global wind generation “new all-time record”:

1) The first case occurred early in the morning – with the new record session briefly at 6,637 MW measured at 2:30 a.m..

2) The second case happened after we published the article…hence the PS at the bottom noting that the record had been increased – at 6,853 MW measured at 4:40 p.m..

July 2021

Prior to May 31, 2022, the previous record was 10 months… being back on July 25, 2021 as shown here (with the record pushed to 6,428 MW).

This record surpassed the record set on July 24, 2021 (i.e. the day before) at 6,120 MW measured at 8:20 p.m.

May 2021

The record set in May was 5,644 MW

I recorded this burst at 5,642 MW on May 25, 2021, but did not record the additional 2 MW later…

April 2021

The record set on Tuesday April 13, 2021 was 5,430 MW.

August 2020

The record was pushed higher, to 5,425 MW.

I had (earlier) recorded this jump in the absolute maximum at 5,075 MW on Friday August 21, 2020.

May 2020

The record was pushed higher, to 5,032 MW.

I had (earlier) recorded this jump to 5,030 MW for the first time on Friday May 1, 2020.

August 2019

The record was pushed higher, to 4,818 MW.

July 2019

The record was pushed higher, to 4,624 MW.

May 2019

The record was pushed higher, to 4,423 MW.

February 2019

The record was pushed higher, to 4,050 MW on February 12, 2019.

Previously, the maximum production was less than 4,000 MW.

(A2) Monthly minimums

Looking down the graph, we see that the the minimum level of global production of wind origin is usually in the range from 2% to 3% (of the installed capacity at the time).

1) However, it has sometimes been as low as 1% and sometimes as high as 8%.

2) These are all instantaneous values ​​that occurred at some point during the month.

3) For May 2022, this low point of only 258 MW only occurred 4 days before the new absolute maximum

(a) As documented as a “short-term wind lull”

(b) Really, it varied from starvation to feasting in a relatively short period of time!

Also of note, in terms of the monthly minimum, was:

1) the exceptional low point for the month medium capacity factor, suitability factor …to be back in June 2017 with the longest-lasting “wind drought” that occurred throughout that month.

2) while this is the deepest and most sustained lull we have seen in actual measured data for wind generation, analysis performed for Schedule 27 in GenInsights21 suggests that there is had some and more geographically dispersed “wind droughts” over the (only!) 16 year history of wind speed records that we have analyzed from nomenclature.

…for more on that, watch from the approximately 40-minute mark in this recording of the presentation we gave to the Smart Energy Council in April 2022.

(A3) Monthly capacity factor

Another major observation we can make is that the monthly average capacity factor is clearly oscillating less around the long-term average of 30% as the installed capacity of wind farms and geographical diversity increase.

(B) How long will this record last?

By coincidence I noticed that BOM warning earlier today about ‘warning for damaging winds >90km/h’ through the southern part of the NEM for tomorrow (Sunday June 5, 2022):

2022-06-04-BOM-tweet-highwindsunday

We’ll have to wait and see what tomorrow brings – if AEMO’s current forecast comes to fruition (as this snapshot from ez2view at 7:25 p.m.) we will see levels close to 6000MW tomorrow evening:

2022-06-04-at-19-25-ez2view-ForecastWind

Stay tuned…