Statistics Canada changes its production estimates

Although bearish for wheat overall, MGEX HRS for December delivery hit its highest trading level in more than six weeks in morning trade. The Prairie harvest still has some way to go before reaching completion, with this week’s Manitoba Crop Report estimating that the spring wheat harvest is 57% complete, which compares to the four-year average of 83 %.

Statistics Canada more than offset this gain in spring wheat production with a downward revision of 355,531 mt in estimated durum wheat production to 6,117 mt. While a downward revision was expected given conditions across southern and western parts of the Prairies in August, the latest yield estimate from the Government of Saskatchewan continues to cast doubt on the estimate. of today.

While Statistics Canada cut its durum wheat yield expectation from 2.8 bpa for Saskatchewan to 36 bpa, the Saskatchewan government estimated the yield at 30 bpa as of September 5. The difference between these two estimates is 777,433 mt, based on estimated harvested acres for Saskatchewan which accounts for 77.3% of the national area. It deserves to be observed.

The canola estimate was revised from 400,000 acres to 19.099 mmt, up 38.8% from the previous year, while 0.2% above the five-year average. Some expected that estimate to have been lowered even further. Compared to provincial data, Statistics Canada estimates Manitoba’s yield at 42.5 bpa, which compares with early indications from the Manitoba government of a range of 45-55 bpa, although it is noted that only 11% are harvested. Today’s estimate for Saskatchewan is 37.8 bpa compared to the province’s recent estimate of 34 bpa and the official estimate for Alberta is 41.7 bpa, while the The Government of Alberta’s dryland yield estimate is 41 bpa.

Statistics Canada estimated lentil production at 128,670 mt lower than last estimate and lower dry pea production at 24,273 mt. Of the crops that saw modest upward revisions today, barley production was revised up by 81,800 tonnes and oat production was revised up by 183,000 tonnes.

Estimated maize production has been revised slightly upwards to 14.861 mmt, which would reflect a record harvest for the country. Interestingly, Statistics Canada estimated Ontario’s yield at 172.6 bpa, where nearly two-thirds of the country’s harvested acres are found. Earlier this week, Great Lakes Grain’s crop tour of the province ended with an average yield of 176.9 bpa. The country’s corn production could see further upward revisions.

Soybean production was revised up by 123,440 tonnes to 6.505 million tonnes, the largest crop in four years. The official Ontario yield estimate came in at 49.3 bpa compared to the Great Lakes Grain round average of 48.8 bpa. Statistics Canada currently estimates that 59% of harvested acres of soybeans are located in the province of Ontario.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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