Newmarket Price Guide and Statistics

Preparing for the Craven meeting in Newmarket starts here with Timeform’s in-depth guide, featuring all the key facts and figures.


Timeform’s Newmarket (Rowley Mile) Course Guide

The Cesarewitch course is two and a half miles long, with a single right turn halfway through, creating a ten furlong straight course, the longest in the country.

A wide and galloping track with an uphill finish ideal for big horses with long strides, except for the descent into the Dip where these types can get out of balance.

The ability to see the trip well is essential, and those who commit too early to get home can be caught up in the climb to the line.

Timeform’s horses to follow | 2022 flat season preview


Main active jockeys at the Craven Meeting

Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 rides)

  • William Buick 28.57% (16-56)
  • Tom Eaves 18.18% (2-11)
  • Andrea Atzeni 17.95% (7-39)
  • Frankie Dettori 14.29% (6-42)
  • Jim Crowley 14.29% (6-42)

Other points to consider

  • William Buick is the most successful Craven Meeting jockey in the last five years with 16 winners, posting a profit of 15.32 points at Betfair SP. Buick had 15 winners out of 39 rides (38.46% strike rate) in the Craven meeting while teaming with Charlie Appleby. These 15 winners brought a profit of 25.39 points to Betfair SP. Native Trail will spearhead a strong team for Buick and Appleby in this year’s meeting when they line up in Wednesday’s Craven Stakes.
  • Frankie Dettori has ridden six Craven Meeting winners over the past five years, posting a profit of 4.95 points at Betfair SP. These six victories were won on horses from the Gosden stable and this partnership brought a profit of 20.95 points when combined at the Craven Meeting. Dettori has been booked to ride Megallan for John and Thady Gosden in Tuesday’s Earl of Sefton Stakes.

Main trainers active at the Craven Meeting

Sorted by strike rate over the past five years (minimum 10 riders)

  • Charlie Appleby 30.77% (16-52)
  • Roger Varian 28.57% (8-28)
  • Ralph Beckett 25.00% (3-12)
  • Stuart Williams 23.08% (3-13)
  • Guillaume Haggas 22.73% (5-22)

Other points to consider

  • Charlie Appleby is the most successful coach at Craven Meeting over the past five years with 16 winners, posting a profit of 18.60 points at Betfair SP. Appleby has notably won two of the last three renewals of the Craven Stakes with Masar (2018) and Master of The Seas (2021), while the coach has a particularly solid record at the meeting with rookies, saddles six winners out of 11 starters (54 ,55). % strike rate). Appleby has no less than four unreleased foals to choose from in entries for Wednesday’s Wood Ditton.
  • Stuart Williams has been the most profitable coach to watch at Craven Meeting for the past five years. His three winners – Examiner (19.92), Keystroke (220.00) and Desert Dreamer (27.00) – were all kicked out at big odds, giving their coach a whopping profit of 253.92 points to Betfair SP. Williams will have another small team of horses to race at this year’s meeting and none of them should be underestimated given their record of dispatching long-prize winners.

racing style

The tactical advantage the lead runners have in any given race, both on the flat and over the jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed all horses that recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in UK flat racing since the start of the 2017 season, you would be running at a strike rate of 17.98% and celebrate a profit of more than 20,000 points on Betfair SP.

On the other hand, statistics tell us that backing heist horses just doesn’t pay off in the long run. Horses that recorded an EPF of 4 (backward) in UK flat racing over the same period had a strike rate of 7.47%, while horses that recorded an EPF of 5 ( backwards) performed even worse with a strike rate of just 5.48. %.

  • Time Form EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse that led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse that was retained.

It should be noted that these numbers can vary significantly from course to course. At one end of the spectrum there’s Epsom, where favorites have a strike rate of 27.38% since the start of the 2017 season, and at the other end there’s Ascot, where favorites have a strike rate of only 10.67%. for the same period.

When looking at the overall data, Newmarket seems to fall somewhere in between. For context, the former have a strike rate of 18.90% in all flat races held at Newmarket since the start of the 2017 season, again better than horses that have recorded an EPF of 2 (12, 63%), 3 (8.14%), 4 (6.96%) or 5 (6.28%).


Best performance at Craven Meeting

Sorted by Timeform performance ratings over the past five years

  • Masar (123) – Craven Stakes 2018 WON
  • Ranger (119) – 2018 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
  • Zabeel Prince (119) – 2019 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
  • Madrid Steel (118) – 2017 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
  • Deauville (117) – 2018 Earl of Sefton Prize Second
  • Mon Oberon (117) – 2021 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON

The Craven Stakes have been won by several future stars over the years and Masar could hardly have been more impressive in taking the nine-length spoils in 2021. No horse has performed better at the Craven Meeting in the five last few years and, although Masar could only manage third place when sent off as favorite for the 2000 Guineas on his next start, he continued to taste classic Derby success at Epsom.

The 2018 edition of the Earl of Sefton Stakes was arguably the best in recent years and Forest Ranger needed to show very smart form to beat Deauville by half a length, while Zabeel Prince was another notable winner in this group three in 2019. He was well ahead to the finish on this occasion, beating Forest Ranger by almost three lengths, and it proved an ideal springboard for Group One glory in the Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp during his next departure.

Steel of Madrid and My Oberon also impressed by winning the Earl of Sefton Stakes. Steel of Madrid showed improved form to make a winning reappearance in 2017, while My Oberon came close to emulating Zabeel Prince after winning last year’s renewal, finishing third in the Prix d’Isfahan.


Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends

Since 2000 unless otherwise stated

  • Absence – The 20/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes were making their first appearance of the calendar year. Soliloquy succeeded in 2018 after 221 days out, while Esentepe prevailed in 2012 just 11 days after finishing third in a minor event at Kempton. The average winner was returning after 180 days off.
  • Course experience – 12/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes had already raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile). 7/21 had previously won on the track, including Speciosa (2006) and Music Show (2009), both of which won the Group Two Rockfel Stakes the previous fall.
  • PS – 15/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes have been kicked out at single digit odds. Fantasia (5/4 in 2009) is the shortest prize winner and Esentepe (28/1 in 2012) is the longest prize winner. The winner’s average SP is 8.3/1.
  • Temporal Form Assessment – 13/21 Nell Gwyn Stakes winners had a pre-race Timeform rating of 95 or higher. Fantasia (111p in 2009) and Music Show (111p in 2010) were both highly rated before winning the race, while Karen’s Caper had a rating of just 80p before her victory in 2005. Timeform’s average rating before the race of the winner is 98 .

Trending Craven Stakes

Since 2000 unless otherwise stated

  • Absence – 19/21 winners of the Craven Stakes were making their first appearance of the calendar year. King of Happiness succeeded in 2002 after 257 days out, while Masar came out on top in 2018 just 40 days after finishing the peloton on dirt at Meydan. The average winner was returning after 178 days off.
  • Course experience – 12/21 Craven Stakes winners had already raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile). 5/21 had previously won on the track, although their victories had all been won in maiden/novice company.
  • PS – 18/21 Craven Stakes winners have been kicked out at single-digit odds. Delegator (6/4 in 2009) is the shortest price winner and Kool Kompany (14/1 in 2015) is the longest price winner. The winner’s average SP is 4.7/1.
  • Temporal Form Assessment – 15/21 Craven Stakes winners had a pre-race time form rating of 107 or higher. Toormore (121p in 2014) was highly rated before winning the race, while Eminent had a rating of just 82p before winning in 2017. Timeform’s average rating before the winner’s race is 109.